Way back in September of 2024, I penned an article for the Meteorite Times that I titled PreFalls! Meteorites that are meteorites before they are meteorites. The gist of it was that in a few cases, we here on earth were aware that a meteorite fall was going to happen before the space rock even entered our atmosphere. And I called those recovered specimens “PreFalls.” Here is the final paragraph of that article:
In the end, two things about PreFalls stand out to me. The first is that the window of time between discovery and atmospheric impact is measured in hours, sometimes just a couple. This does not bode well for us earthlings being able to prevent a significant impact through any of our science fiction-like devices and plans. The second thing, and possibly even more concerning, is the intense euphoria in the press about these events where the incoming rocks never had the chance to pose a threat to anybody or anything often with the additional insult of “fell harmlessly into the ocean.” They report it like it’s a good thing, and it really makes me wonder whose side they’re on? Either way, future searches for meteorites might, in addition to wandering ice, dirt and sand with magnet in hand, also include studying near-earth asteroids in hopes one will decide to make earth its home.
When I wrote that final line I never imagined that just a few months later, there might be some reality to that wish. As it turns out, there is, at the time of this writing, a calculated one in 32 chance that a football field sized rock will collide with earth in 2032. The current 3.1% probability of an unfriendly interaction between our earth and the solar system’s asteroid. So now that there is a bit of a time crunch, we best get going on some bigger meteorite collecting questions beyond just how much a gram or two of 2024 YR4 will cost us collectors.
From a meteorite collecting standpoint, 2024 YR4 is a big deal. Although not an historical fall…yet, it does check most of the rest of the boxes, and creates a few more new ones. For starters, 2024 YR4 is a PreFall and will very likely set records for the most witnesses to a meteorite fall. It will also be the most photographed and videoed fall and the most documented with data collected through a vast array of instrumentation from around the world and from platforms in space. Further, PreFall 2024 YR4 will be a “Hammer stone” by hitting man-made objects including cars, houses, buildings, tents, boats, or whatever else is in its way. And sadly, animals will be killed too. On a more macabre note, there will very likely be a few hardy and foolhardy souls who will take the opportunity to experience the arrival in person so PreFall 2024 YR4 will also be the first meteorite fall with documented human casualties.
In an odd twist, when PreFall 2024 YR4 arrives, it will stress the definition of both a meteorite as well as the use of the word parent body. To my knowledge, there is no upper mass limit on a meteorite. If that holds, then a meteorite would be the lesser of the two interacting masses. So if Venus and Earth collided, Venus would be the meteorite. While this seems an absurd application of the term meteorite, consider the term “parent body.” Google thinks that a parent body is “the object that a meteorite or meteoroid comes from.” But what if the entire parent body arrived as a meteorite? I’ll answer that. It means that we know exactly where the meteorite came from! And that, like all the other collectable goodness of PreFall 2024 YR4 increases the scientific value substantially.
The classification of PreFall 2024 YR4 will be narrowed down before it hits us, but the official numbers and class will be in the Meteoritical Bulletin published later in 2032. Even if it is a lowly L6 or H5, it will still be a highly desirable meteorite collectable. But that raises some additional questions that deserve answers long before December 22, 2032. Questions about ownership. Questions about the implications of a land vs sea arrival. And given the potential terrestrial population displacement and loss of property due to this Act of God, perhaps the sale of pieces of PreFall 2024 YR4 could go towards rebuilding and to offset the personal costs of evacuation. An ocean landing would likely create tsunamis so damage along coastlines may be substantial. Other considerations of the unlikely event of a water landing include the disruption of shipping routes and fishing areas as well as damage to undersea cables, pipelines, and other hardware.
Another consideration here might be the PreSale of this PreFall. I can imagine some meteorite dealers locking in a selling price prior to actual access to the material. Imagine “investing” a few hundred dollars in a few hundred grams of what might be the most plentiful and heavily distributed meteorite on the planet. Or just as easily the most elusive having a majority of it vaporize before landing in the ocean. Just some food for thought considering we are the very first humans to ever consider these questions outside of the hypothetical. So enjoy chewing on that!
Until next time….
